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ELECTIONS 2019: VOTER TURNOUT MIGHT BECOME THE KEY FOR BIG MODI VICTORY

by IRC-ADMIN - May 13 2019 8:01PM

What is to be kept in mind while looking at elections and their results is that in 2014, no media house had predicted such a landslide victory in favour of the BJP. The term 'Modi Wave' even today gives nightmares and scares to those pidis in the Lutyens' Delhi. If you look at their articles and stories even before months of elections being announced they had outrightly rubbished the idea of a Modi wave 2.0. Just google 'Modi Wave' and you would be surprised to see the hurry with which these darbaris are working so as to make the people believe that there is no outright mood in the nation for Modi. For this they have left no stone unturned from running in fake exit polls to paid propaganda, they have tried their level best to establish an anti-incumbency in the minds of the people. But most of these efforts have been in vain, not only that people have rejected these theories but for the first time in many years, there is a pro-incumbency mood in the country resulting in people coming out to vote in large numbers. Through this article, IRC would like to analyze as to why general elections 2019 could see a massive sweep by the BJP.

THE NUMBERS SAYS SO
The ongoing Lok Sabha elections seem well poised to set the record of highest voter turnout in independent India's history. According to Election Commission data, the overall turnout in the ongoing elections stood at 68.31 per cent, compared to 63.72 per cent in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The 2014 polls had recorded the highest voter turnout among all the Lok Sabha polls held till date with a voter turnout of 66.4 per cent.

As with the earlier phases of the polls, the 6th phase of the 2019 elections also witnessed huge voter turnout. Among other states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the two crucial states, saw an upswing in voter turnout as compared to 2014. In Bihar, the voter turnout was recorded at 59.29% (an increase of 2.18%). Uttar Pradesh also witnessed an upswing in the percentage of voters in comparison to 2014 numbers. As with the previous phases, the voter turnout was higher overall (at 64%) in comparison to 2014 during corresponding phases with 63.7 percent turnout.

Only the second phase had witnessed a marginal reduction as compared to the 2014 polls. Therefore, the 2019 polls have recorded the highest turnout for a substantial portion of the Lok Sabha seats and as such any drastic decline in the total turnout seems unlikely from here.

Among the states, where elections have been concluded, Assam recorded the highest turnout at a mind-boggling 81.5 per cent in 14 constituencies in the state. On the other hand, West Bengal where polling is going to be held in the upcoming phases as well, recorded a massive turnout of 82.53 per cent.

It is important to mention here that the fifth phase has recorded a turnout of 63.24 per cent even as fifteen more Lok Sabha constituencies went to polls. This is again a substantial growth as the overall turnout for these 51 seats during the 2014 polls stood at 61.75 percent. Therefore, the surge in the voter turnout has been sustained. If we add these 51 seats to the 373 seats which had already gone to polls by the fourth phase, the figure stands at 424 seats. The voter turnout is clearly enjoying a comfortable lead over the 2014 polls.

As is evident from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, a high voter turnout gives BJP the upper hand. This is because a high turnout means that the core voter base of BJP, the working middle class, has come out to vote. The working middle class, which usually stayed away from the exercise, has gradually become more aware of the politics in the country and this is a very good sign for the BJP. 

2014 to 2019 - Some things never change.

It is now 2019 and the nation is in the thick of General Elections. The same clamour that we heard in 2014 is back and the media seems to support the Congress narrative that 2019 might be a repeat of 2004 elections. They repeatedly assert that the Modi wave is over and that Rahul Gandhi has "come of age" (A phenomenon that has been taking place since 2009) and is poised to defeat Narendra Damodardas Modi.

With the narrative being exactly the same in 2014 and now in 2019, it bodes well to revisit what the intelligentsia was saying then and now, considering they were proven wrong then and they might as well be proven wrong now.

In April 2014, Sanjay Kumar declared emphatically that "BJP's aggressive campaigning centred around Narendra Modi has failed in generating a Modi wave across the country". Praveen Chakraborty of IndiaSpend, who has since then joined the Congress party's Data Analytics unit, had pontificated solemnly in 2014 why waves don't matter.

The Blind who could not see the obvious in 2014 appear to be sure again in their vehement proclamations that there's no Modi wave in 2019. Praveen Chakraborty, who had told us with utter confidence that "Data analysis for over 40 years shows that national issues or sentiments have a limited impact on votes and seats for a national party" is now telling us that the absence of Modi-Wave is exactly what will make 2019 a repeat of 2004.

Sanjay Kumar, after failing miserably 5 years earlier, wants us to pay close attention to "Why the Modi wave is missing so far in the polls". Although this time around, he appears to have learnt something from his past failures and adds the caveat, "So far this election has not seen either a pro- or anti-Modi wave. While it might change in the round of elections, it can go either way."

It's a familiar trend, however. The mainstream media, like in 2014, is again working overtime to prove that there's no Modi wave. Only the players appear to have changed. The likes of Sujata Nandan and Anup Kumar had exhausted themselves telling us that the Modi-wave was nonexistent.

We were told by Scroll in 2014 that caste politics had neutralized the Modi wave in Bihar and that the BJP was in contention in only 9 seats. the BJP eventually won over 22 seats in the state while the NDA secured 31. Does it seem familiar with regards to what the same people are saying for Uttar Pradesh in 2019? Scroll.in in 2018 itself (a year before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections) had written off the Modi wave. It asserted that while BJP might win 2019, Modi's ability to create another wave is highly unlikely.

TheQuint.in didn't exist right before the 2014 elections, but if it had, we are pretty sure it would be saying exactly what it's saying in 2019. "No Modi wave". No one can fault Aditya Menon for lack of effort. The known bigot and fake news peddler went to extraordinary lengths to torture the survey data into saying what he wanted it to say. Our comprehensive article on the matter can be read here.

Some, of course, took their stupidity a notch ahead. In 2019, Prannoy Roy of NDTV said there was no Modi wave in 2014. The election where BJP won a thumping majority. And, of course, for the 2019 elections, he is pretty much saying the same thing.

The run-up to results day of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections appears to be along the same lines of what we witnessed five years ago. We have politicians from the Opposition parties making foolish remarks that only benefits the BJP, the enthusiasm among BJP supporters is at an all-time high, Narendra Modi's confidence appears to be on Cloud 9. And we have detractors who tell us regularly that there is no Modi wave in 2019. It only remains to be seen whether 2019 has a similar conclusion to what we witnessed in 2014. Its most probably going to be much better than 2014 for the BJP.

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